It’s not all rosy for BTC price as market commentators warn of a crypto firesale around the Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin stabilized at around $69,400 on April 10, two days after almost reaching its record high of $73,800. With less than 10 days left before the Bitcoin halving, will the previous all-time high price support level hold?
Bitcoin price triple top?
This marks Bitcoin’s third failed attempt to jump decisively below its all-time high, reflecting traders’ uncertainty near record levels, where profit-taking or increased selling pressure prevents further upward movement.
Bitcoin’s back-to-back upside rejections increase its potential to undergo sharp price declines in the coming weeks.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that April’s Bitcoin halving, alongside strategies employed by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, will trigger a “firesale” of crypto assets.
Hayes highlighted that the latter half of April could pose significant risks for volatile assets, a period marked by a decrease in liquidity due to U.S. tax payments, the commencement of quantitative tightening by the Fed, and the pending utilization of the Treasury’s General Account (TGA).
“The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st,” he argued, adding:
“This is when tax payments remove liquidity from the system, QT rumbles on at the current elevated pace, and Yellen has yet to start running down the TGA. After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices.”
Bitcoin risks crashing to $20K: Deutsche Bank survey
A Deutsche Bank survey reveals a divided consumer sentiment on Bitcoin’s future: about one-third anticipate its value dropping below $20,000 by the end of 2024, a stark $50,000 decline from its current price, echoing the lows of a 2022 bear market.
Only 10% of the 3,600 participants expect it to exceed $75,000 by December. Meanwhile, 40% are optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, but nearly an equal proportion (38%) foresee its disappearance.
Bitcoin’s pre-halving decline toward $60,000 is possible
Crypto market analyst Rekt Capital sees Bitcoin crashing to around $40,000 after the halving, citing its price moves around the previous three halvings. For instance, the chart below illustrates similarities between the price trends around the halving in 2020 and 2024.
The circled area, highlighted in blue in the associated chart, is significant because it aligns with the region where Bitcoin has historically experienced roughly 20-40% retracement before its halving events.
For instance, in 2024, BTC’s price has pulled back by roughly 18%, closer to its circa 20% correction preceding the 2020 halving. That leaves it with more room to decline ahead of the 2024 halving—less than 10 days away.
Afterward, Bitcoin may enter the re-accumulation area (red), which would see it consolidating inside the $60,000-70,000 range, followed by a strong breakout toward a new record high, as illustrated by Rekt Capital.
“The Re-Accumulation phase can last multiple weeks and even up to 150 days (i.e 5 months),” the analyst noted, adding:
“Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving.”
On the flip side, the analyst predicts a descent toward Bitcoin’s ascending trendline support around $40,000, should the price fall beneath $60,000.
Source: Cointelegraph.com
