The bank expects Bitcoin ETFs to enjoy inflows similar to the very first gold ETF – but at a faster rate.
British multinational bank Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 – more than a 300% climb from where it trades today.
The bank argued in a Monday research note that Bitcoin spot ETFs – which are expected to receive “imminent” approval – may absorb $50 billion to $100 billion worth of flows within a year.
The Upside Potential of Bitcoin ETFs
The bank based its inflow estimates on the performance of the first gold ETF to reach the U.S. market in November 2004.
The precious metal is frequently compared to Bitcoin in financial circles as a scarce form of money and a reliable store of value. As with the gold ETF, a Bitcoin equivalent would allow investors to gain easy, familiar access to the asset’s price without dealing with the complexity of storing the asset on their own.
“The price of gold rose 4.3x in the seven to eight years it took for gold ETP holdings to mature after the first ETP was introduced,” explained the bank’s analysts, including digital asset research lead Geoff Kendrick and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper.
The authors expect a Bitcoin ETF to trigger gains of the same magnitude, but in a shorter time frame of just one to two years, since the Bitcoin ETF market is expected to “develop more quickly.”
By the bank’s assumptions, such inflows could drive Bitcoin’s price to “an end-2025 level closer to $200,000.”
“This assumes that between 437,000 and 1.37 million new Bitcoin will be held in spot US ETFs by the end of 2024,” the analysts continued. “In USD terms, that should be roughly USD 50-100 billion.”
Countdown to Bitcoin ETFs
Last month, Standard Chartered estimated that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, driven by both ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Nearly a dozen asset managers including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest are awaiting SEC approval on their ETF applications this week. The agency’s final deadline to approve or deny Ark’s application is on Wednesday.
Nearly all sponsors unveiled exceptionally low management fees for their products, signaling to some that their providers may have massive AUM expectations to be able to sustain such low fees.
As ETF excitement grows, Bitcoin tapped another multi-year high of $47,100 on Monday.
