Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that President Donald Trump’s latest crypto executive order could challenge the long-standing four-year market cycle in the crypto space.
Hougan wrote in a client note today that if historical trends continue, 2025 will be a strong year for crypto. “We forecast the BTC price to double to over $200,000 this year, driven by flows into ETFs and Bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments. This is conservative,” he wrote.
Typically, these trends would reinforce the classic four-year cycle, Hougan noted. But Trump’s executive order establishing a task force to investigate a strategic digital asset reserve presents an overwhelming bullish case that could upend the pattern.
“The launch of ETFs was a big deal, bringing hundreds of billions of dollars from new investors into the crypto ecosystem,” Hougan said. “But I believe the full-scale adoption of crypto, envisioned in Trump’s executive order, where banks hold crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are broadly integrated into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions have positions in crypto, will bring in trillions.”
Historically, Bitcoin follows a well-defined four-year cycle, with three years of significant gains followed by a sharp decline of 58% to 74% in the fourth year. By this logic, 2025 will also be a strong year, but a correction could occur in the market in 2026.
“The four-year crypto cycle mirrors traditional economic booms and busts, amplified by catalysts like the 2011 exchange launch, the 2014 collapse of Mt. Gox, and the SEC’s 2018 ICO crackdown,” Hougan said. While some analysts attribute the cycle to Bitcoin’s quadrennial halving, Hougan argues that investor psychology and speculation play a larger role.
According to Hougan, the current bull run was catalyzed by the collapse of firms like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius in 2022. It was officially ignited in March 2023 when Grayscale won a key legal defense against the SEC, paving the way for spot Bitcoin ETFs to be approved in January 2024. Institutional participation has since pushed Bitcoin from $22,000 to over $100,000 in a year, ushering in what Hougan calls a “mainstream era” in crypto.
“If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700,000 Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?” Hougan questioned. While he believes the four-year cycle is not completely invalid, he predicts future corrections will be less severe as the market matures.
Source:bitcoinsistemi.com
