Despite the increasing excitement around the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin, it may not reclaim $40,000. In recent analyses, crypto market participants are reconsidering how bullish the ETF narrative truly is for BTC price movement.
The dust from the event involving a regulatory bombshell against Binance in the United States, which included a $4.3 billion fine and the removal of CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, continues to settle. Bitcoin retracted to the lows of the week on the news, but a swift recovery within the next 24 hours brought it back to approximately 18-month highs.
At the same time, commentators have begun to suggest that the sanctions were a timely move to pave the way for the first US spot Bitcoin ETF. An approval that is expected to be a turning point for crypto – although uncertain – may come in early January 2024.
However, not everyone sees an immediate parabolic reaction in BTC price with an approval. Popular trader Bitcoin Jack expressed doubts in a recent post about whether BTC/USD can even reach $42,000: “I said 42k. Not sure anymore.”
Bitcoin Jack explained that the news of the week, including Binance and ETF, did not reshape market dynamics: “In the past few weeks, in addition to headlines that have generally been bullish (excluding Kraken), I expected any rumor of a decision between Binance and the US to push the price up more than it actually did (reasons: positive for ETF, less uncertainty for investors whether there is a solution, most of these are the same recycled pressure language as before.”
While introducing potential downside targets, he mentioned that support levels are “clean” and that $30,000 could still come into play: “Sometimes saying the opposite of what happens is also a sign. High timeframe supports are a clean buy level if they come. Here we potentially go to 42 or another stage, support around 29-31.”
A Spot Bitcoin ETF and $1 Million BTC
As reported by COINOTAG, other recent predictions, partly due to the remaining liquidity, indicate that $30,000 will serve as a retracement zone. In the latest poll by Filbfilb, the result was about evenly split on whether Bitcoin would hit $40,000 or $30,000 first.
At the opposite extreme of the ETF topic is Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3. In an X post on November 23, Samson Mow suggested that Bitcoin would not only reach $1 million after the approval result, but also claimed that hodlers underestimated the amount:
“I noticed some Bitcoin enthusiasts who don’t think Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 within a few days/weeks after ETF money starts flowing.”