Ether could continue dropping against the U.S. dollar in a high interest-rate environment.
Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) tumbled to its worst levels in almost two months against the U.S. dollar on May 6 as the rout in financial markets rippled across the cryptocurrency sector. Nonetheless, ETH did fare better than Bitcoin (BTC) with the ETH/BTC pair hitting a three-week high.
The Merge impact
Many analysts credited Ethereum’s merge to proof-of-stake from proof-of-work as one of the key reasons behind the capital rotation from Ether to Bitcoin markets, including Toast.ETH, a pseudonymous analyst who underscored Ether’s ongoing supply reduction as another reason why ETH may be currently outperforming BTC.
Interestingly, Ethereum has grown by nearly 250% against Bitcoin since the beginning of its migration to proof-of-stake in December 2020.
Eliezer Ndinga, a research lead at 21 Shares, a Zug-based crypto ETP provider, pointed out that “liquid staking” could also be playing a big role in reducing sell-side pressure.
ETH/BTC upside prospects
Technicals indicate ETH/BTC could grow further in May but risks a broader correction overall as it trends inside a rising wedge pattern.
The pair has bounced after testing the wedge’s lower trendline as support on April 30, and is now heading towards the upper trendline (around 0.078) as its interim upside target.
But since rising wedges are typically bearish reversal patterns, ETH/BTC’s likelihood of breaking lower remains higher in the long term.
As a rule of technical analysis, rising wedge breakdowns end up with the price crashing to a level at a length equal to the pattern’s maximum height when measured from the breakdown point, i.e., 0.064–0.069.
ETH/USD bearish scenario
Technical signals suggest more downside prospects for Ether in the coming months, with a “bear flag” pattern projecting ETH’s price decline toward $1,700 in Q2, down about 40% from May 6’s price.
Conversely, a rebound from the flag’s lower trendline could have Ether retest $4,000.